­­The Ag Outlook for 2024/2025

By Lee Schulz and Chad Hart

With planting mostly completed and grilling season underway, USDA has provided an update on the crop and livestock outlook for the coming 12–18 months. Compared to the most recent past summers, the June World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was less of a new news story and more of confirmation of prior trends. This outlook will shift over the coming months, but these estimates outline the most likely scenario given today’s conditions.

For livestock, the 2024 marketing year is shaping up to be a strong production year despite some production challenges (table 1). While the beef and turkey sectors are experiencing production cuts due to a variety of impacts from the multi-year issues of drought and avian influenza, the pork and broiler sectors continue to press overall meat production higher. On the price side, cattle, hogs, and broilers are, on average, capturing slightly higher prices. However, the strong turkey prices from 2023 have not sustained themselves into 2024. US meat exports have stepped back in 2024, with less beef and broiler meat exiting the country. Pork exports have risen, but not enough to offset the trend from the other meats.

For 2025, the meat outlook is for overall production to be relatively steady. However, the trends over the past couple of years continue. Beef production will continue to decline with the smaller cattle herd, but gains from the other meats roughly offset the retreat in beef production. With the most recent update, USDA added 250 million pounds to beef supplies, based on relatively high dressed weights and larger expected feedlot placements in the fourth quarter of 2024. Pork production keeps growing as productivity gains via higher numbers of pigs saved per litter overwhelm lighter numbers of farrowings. USDA projects broiler and turkey production will expand as well, despite the lingering challenges from avian influenza. In general, livestock prices are projected to move in the opposite direction, with cattle prices rising and hog and broiler prices falling. Turkey is the exception, with higher prices projected for the coming year. The price changes are relatively minor, compared to the price shifts over the past 2–3 years. Compared to the 2024 price estimates, cattle prices are projected to be 2.4% higher, hog prices are 2% lower, broiler prices are down 1.2%, and turkey is up 8.5%. Compared to 2022 price levels, cattle prices are projected to be 30.5% higher, hog prices are 15.7% lower, broiler prices are down 10.3%, and turkey is down 32%. Meat exports are expected to be slightly higher. Beef exports are forecast to fall to 2.5 billion pounds, declining by roughly 320 million pounds. Pork exports are expected to increase by 250 million pounds, with broiler exports rising by 141 million pounds.

On the crop side, the May WASDE report is usually based on the acreage estimates from the March Prospective Plantings report and the trend yield released at the Ag Outlook Forum in February. With the June WASDE, USDA holds firmly to those earlier estimates, as there were no changes for either the 2023 or 2024 corn crops. With that said, there are still sizable shifts between the years. The March Prospective Plantings report shows only 90 million acres planted to corn. Thus, even with a projected record trend corn yield of 181 bushels per acre, USDA expects 2024 corn production to be nearly 500 million bushels less than the 2023 total (table 2). However, with expected corn stocks at the end of the 2023 marketing year, which concludes on August 31, 2024, rising to over 2 billion bushels, total corn supplies this fall are projected to be 180 million bushels higher than last year. Corn usage is projected to increase, but not quite at the pace of corn supplies. Feed and residual use of corn is expected to rise by 50 million bushels, paralleling a 50 million bushel increase in exports. Corn usage for ethanol remains strong but stable at 5.45 billion bushels. USDA projects 2024/25 corn ending stocks (so the corn still available in the market at August 31, 2025) at 2.1 billion bushels. Higher stocks tend to go along with lower prices. For the 2023 crop, the current season-average price estimate is $4.65 per bushel. For 2024, the price estimate is $4.40 per bushel. Currently, corn futures prices indicate a 2024 price estimate in the $4.65 range. Thus, the futures market is a bit more optimistic for corn prices over the next 12–18 months, likely based on weather concerns both for the United States and globally.

The soybean estimates also did not change much with the June WASDE report (table 3). The only change was a 10 million bushel decline in soybean crush for the 2023 crop, as USDA pointed to lower domestic soybean meal use this year. However, there are again significant changes between the years. Much of the area that left corn production entered soybean production. With nearly 3 million more acres planted to soybeans, expected production is set to reach 4.45 billion bushels, an increase of 285 million bushels from last year; and as with corn, stocks going into the harvest season are set to be higher, with 350 million bushels in storage at the end of August. Thus, total soybean supplies are projected to exceed 4.8 billion bushels. The parallels with corn continue, as the growth in usage is not quite enough to reduce stocks at the end of the 2024 marketing year. Soybean crush is projected to increase by 135 million bushels, based on continuing renewable diesel development. Soybean exports are expected to rebound by 125 million bushels in the coming marketing year. But 2024 ending stocks are currently set at 455 million bushels, nearly 200 million bushels higher than we saw last fall. While the 2023/24 season-average price estimate has not moved from $12.55 per bushel, the price is $1.65 lower than the previous year. That pattern continues going forward—the 2024/25 season-average price estimate is $11.20 per bushel, down another $1.35 per bushel, as those projected stocks continue to build, despite the renewable diesel boost. Current soybean futures are in line with the USDA price estimate.

The agricultural economy took a big step back in 2023. Net farm income fell from the record levels, as crop prices and revenues retreated and livestock returns were mixed. The current outlook for 2024/2025 shows the drop in net farm income will likely continue, but some commodities may have already seen their low spot. While the lower crop prices have lowered prospects for crop producers, the lower feed costs have alleviated pressures for livestock producers. The futures markets for both corn and soybeans are indicating relatively stable prices looking into the 2025 marketing years, signaling the potential for more stable net farm incomes over the next year.

Suggested citation

Schulz, L., and C. Hart. 2024. “­­The Ag Outlook for 2024/2025.” Agricultural Policy Review, Spring 2024. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. https://agpolicyreview.card.iastate.edu/the-ag-outlook-for-2024-2025.